The 2026-27 NBA season opens with a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals as the San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday night. San Antonio, fresh off a 62-20 regular season and a five-game loss to the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals, enters as a 1.5-point favorite over the Thunder, who finished last season with the best overall record at 64-18 but fell short in their title defense.
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs won the seven-game Western Conference Finals series against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder last year and claimed four of five regular-season meetings during the 2025-26 campaign. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET, capping off a tripleheader on NBA Opening Night.
The latest odds place the over/under at 230.5 points, but projections suggest the game will stay under that mark. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times and has returned nearly $19,000 in profit on top-rated NBA picks since 2018, predicts an average total of 219 points for this matchup. It points to the defensive strength of both teams as a major factor, noting that OKC topped the league in defensive rating last season, with San Antonio ranking second.
The model’s simulations indicate the Under has hit in 62% of games where the Spurs were home favorites last season, the third-highest rate among Western Conference teams. Oklahoma City’s offense may face challenges after losing three key wings, Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe, who combined for nearly 30 points per game last season. This turnover could require an adjustment period for the Thunder’s scoring dynamics.
The model’s 10,000 simulations also suggest one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time, though the specific pick has not been publicly detailed. Fans and bettors can access the full predictions and betting advice from SportsLine ahead of the game.
The Spurs and Thunder closed last season with contrasting outcomes. San Antonio advanced to the NBA Finals but fell to the Knicks, while Oklahoma City, despite the best regular-season record, missed out on repeating as champions. This opener presents a chance for the Thunder to respond after falling in last year’s Western Conference Finals and for the Spurs to assert their dominance on home court.
The game’s defensive intensity from last year, reflected in an average of just 221.7 points across their seven-game series, may set the tone for Tuesday’s matchup. Both teams will look to control the pace and shut down opposing offenses in what promises to be a tight contest.
With the Spurs favored at home and the Under expected to hold, the season opener stands as a measured but intriguing rematch that pits two of the NBA’s strongest defensive teams against each other once again. The first possession will reveal how each side has adapted since their grueling playoff battles last spring.
According to CBS.
