Josh Allen finished last season as the highest-scoring player in Fantasy football. The SportsLine model still has him outside its top 15 quarterbacks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. The reason is Houston, and the numbers are stark.
The Texans sacked Allen a career-high eight times in last year's meeting. He threw two interceptions and did not find the end zone with his arm or his legs. In four regular season starts against Houston, Allen has never scored a rushing touchdown. The game will be played on the road, where Allen has 10 turnovers over his last three Week 1 starts. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is not willing to overlook that history, even for the 2024 MVP.
It is the kind of call that separates the model from human experts. SportsLine says its model has beaten human analysts in Fantasy football for several seasons, particularly when rankings diverge sharply. The same system flagged A.J. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Jahmyr Gibbs before their breakout campaigns. Anyone who followed those calls had a real shot at a league title.
The Week 1 slate still has 14 games remaining across Sunday and Monday. One week does not make or break a season, but starting 1-0 is the goal for every manager. The decisions are not limited to obvious starters. Last year, Daniel Jones, Quentin Johnston and Noah Fant all finished inside the top five at their positions in Week 1, the kind of overlooked performances that define opening weekends. The model is looking for similar surprises this year, and it has identified a quarterback outside the usual conversation who it expects to finish in the top 12. The identity of that quarterback is available in the full rankings, but the model is betting on a name most managers have not considered.
Another player the model is backing is Chargers wideout Ladd McConkey. His sophomore season was a step backward, dropping from the WR12 in 2024 to WR30 last year. The model sees reasons for a bounce-back. Keenan Allen has left Los Angeles, removing a significant share of the target competition. The offensive line is healthier, and Mike McDaniel has joined as offensive coordinator. The Week 1 opponent is Arizona, which finished 27th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense last season. McConkey slots in as a top 10 Fantasy wideout for the week, ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. That is a bold ranking for a player who has not yet proven he can sustain elite production, but the model is confident the situation has changed enough to justify it.
The broader point is that Week 1 rankings are never straightforward. The model is fading Allen despite his track record. It is elevating McConkey despite his recent regression. It is also pointing to a quarterback nobody is talking about. These are the kinds of calls that win leagues in September, when the rest of the room is still leaning on draft position and name value.
The full Week 1 Fantasy football rankings from SportsLine cover every position for both PPR and standard leagues. The model has released its projections, its start-sit recommendations and its sleepers for the opening week of the 2026 NFL season. The rankings are available now at SportsLine, where the model's quarterback pick and its full positional breakdowns are published in full.
According to CBS.