NFL Week 3 fantasy football projections and rankings from advanced model

NFL Week 3 fantasy football projections and rankings from advanced model

Week 3 of the NFL season brings fresh challenges for fantasy football managers as injuries to key players force reconsideration of starting lineups. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Jaxson Dart all suffered injuries last week, alongside offensive weapons J.K. Dobbins, Alec Pierce, and Dallas Goedert, who are expected to miss time. These absences will push fantasy owners to rely on depth or the waiver wire to fill gaps ahead of Thursday’s slate of games.

Uncertainty also surrounds players like Saquon Barkley, Brock Bowers, D.J. Moore, and Puka Nacua, all of whom have questionable statuses due to various injuries. Barkley is dealing with a stinger, Bowers has a knee issue, Moore’s shoulder is in question, and Nacua is managing groin and hip problems. These uncertain health updates complicate start-or-sit decisions for fantasy rosters as managers seek to optimize lineups.

SportsLine’s advanced computer model offers updated Week 3 fantasy football rankings based on simulating every NFL game 10,000 times. The model has outperformed human experts over recent seasons, especially when it comes to ranking differences that can determine league outcomes. It previously flagged players such as A.J. Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of their breakout performances, helping managers target winners early.

One unexpected player the model advises fading this week is Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones. Despite rushing for 105 yards last week against Chicago, the model points out that Jones faces a tougher defense this Sunday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers limited Cleveland to just 44 rushing yards in Week 2, and Chase Brown managed only 56 yards on the ground against Tampa in Week 1. Jones has yet to record a catch this season and is ranked outside the top 25 for running backs this week.

Conversely, the model highlights Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington as a strong Week 3 option. The former sixth-round pick has emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s top target, with 18 targets, 12 catches, and 181 yards so far—numbers surpassing those of Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter combined. Washington’s recent 98-yard game came against Denver’s elite pass defense, which allowed the second fewest fantasy points to receivers in 2025. This week, he faces a New England Patriots defense that was missing cornerback Carlton Davis due to a neck injury, making Washington a top-12 fantasy wide receiver option.

The model also identifies a surprise quarterback projected to finish among the top five fantasy quarterbacks in Week 3, ranking ahead of familiar names like Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. This pick remains unnamed but is positioned as a potential game-changer for managers seeking an edge.

With injuries shaking up lineups and defenses varying widely in strength, SportsLine’s rankings provide critical guidance for managers navigating week-to-week volatility. The full Week 3 fantasy football rankings for PPR and standard leagues, including start-sit advice across all positions, are available on SportsLine.


According to CBS.