Five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 lost for the first time in history last week, exposing the inaccuracy of many 2026 preseason college football predictions. CBS Sports staff revisited their forecasts midway through the season, acknowledging how off-base some picks have been amid a chaotic campaign.
Tom Fornelli predicted Michigan’s offense would improve on the previous seasons under Sherrone Moore and resemble the 2023 unit that averaged 37.3 points per game. Instead, the Wolverines are scoring just 22.7 points on average, ranking 105th nationally. The team even switched quarterbacks last week, replacing Bryce Underwood with Tommy Carr in a narrow win against Penn State.
Maryland was tagged by Richard Johnson and Fornelli as the Big Ten’s most underrated team, praised for returning much of its young top-end talent. However, the Terps sit at 2-5 and rank 83rd in total defense after a 37-30 loss to Rutgers. Mike Locksley remains head coach despite a 2-20 record against Big Ten opponents since 2024, and he fired defensive coordinator Ted Monachino on Sunday.
Oregon drew several optimistic projections, including from CBS Sports staff who predicted the Ducks would win the national title and claim the Big Ten championship. Talent like quarterback Dante Moore, receiver Evan Stewart, and defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei fueled those hopes. The Ducks still have a chance in the College Football Playoff race but carry two losses after a road defeat to Oklahoma State. Moore remains sidelined with a concussion, and backup Brock Thomas started last week, though Dylan Raiola came off the bench to throw a late touchdown in a win over Nebraska.
Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer, was hyped for his arm and athleticism alongside new offensive coordinator Gordan Sammis by Chip Patterson and Richard Johnson. Craig’s debut in Week 0 against North Carolina was rough, and while he bounced back in Weeks 2 and 3, his passer rating of 152.5 ranks seventh in the Big 12. His 10 touchdowns come with five interceptions, including three touchdowns against four picks in conference play.
Cam Coleman, who transferred from Auburn to Texas, was named to CBS Sports’ preseason All-America team by some staffers. Coleman’s talent is evident live, but his production hasn’t matched expectations. He averages just three catches for 56 yards per game and has only one standout performance with 110 yards in a loss to Oklahoma. Fans have criticized his perimeter blocking.
On the other hand, Chip Patterson’s cautious take on Utah proved more accurate. While he saw the Utes as a mid-tier Big 12 team unlikely to crack the Top 25, Utah remains one of six undefeated FBS teams and one of three from the Big 12. They face one-loss Houston in Week 8, having drawn attention for their creative two-quarterback package.
Washington also fell short of expectations. Chris Hummer predicted the Huskies would surprise with quarterback Demond Williams returning from a transfer portal flirtation, even placing them in the top 10. Instead, Washington is 4-3, having lost three straight games despite a favorable early schedule and five home games in seven weeks. They average 27.9 points per game, rank 130th in rushing, and Williams is currently injured.
Texas A&M was considered a sleeper nationally by David Cobb, with an experienced roster and quarterback Marcel Reed highlighted as reasons for optimism. Yet, the Aggies have suffered losses at home to Kentucky, LSU, and Missouri. Reed ranks 15th in the SEC with 175.3 passing yards per game but is last in quarterback rating at 112.5, throwing seven touchdowns and six interceptions so far.
This season’s unpredictability has unsettled preseason prognosticators and challenged assumptions about team strengths. Amid the upheaval, Utah’s undefeated run and Oregon’s lingering CFP hopes stand out. The next major test arrives Saturday when Utah hosts Houston, a game that could reshape the Big 12 landscape.
According to CBS.
