Favorites have won 71% of NFL games through Week 5, but bettors are finding value backing underdogs against the spread. After 69 games, favorites stand at 49-20-1 straight up, yet underdogs lead 42-34-3 ATS, including a strong 27-17-3 ATS run since Week 3, according to NFL betting data.
Large favorites—those favored by six points or more—have been successful in terms of wins, posting an 18-7 record. However, they have struggled to cover the spread, going just 7-15-3 ATS. Prime time games have been particularly challenging for favorites, who are 4-12 ATS with 10 outright losses.
On the totals front, the under has dominated in lower-scoring games, going 6-2 when the closing total is 40 points or less. By contrast, the over has thrived in higher totals, hitting 8-2 on games with totals of 50 points or more.
Week 6’s schedule features five games with consensus totals above 50 points. The Texans-Jaguars game in London, despite a spread of just 2.5 points and a total of 42.5, offers several notable trends. After a rough 0-4 start, Houston snapped their losing streak with a 26-3 win over the Titans in Week 5 as a 6.5-point road favorite. Dating back to Week 12 last season, the Texans are 4-1 SU and ATS as underdogs, with their only loss coming as a narrow 1.5-point underdog at Buffalo.
Jacksonville is on a 12-1 SU and 11-3 ATS streak since Week 11 of 2025. Their defense has been strong, allowing just 14.3 points per game and holding 12 straight opponents, including the last 11 in a row, under 21 points. The rivalry between these AFC South teams has produced close games: Houston has won 13 of 16 meetings since 2018, but Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The favorite has gone 6-1 SU in those seven, while the underdog is 9-5 ATS in the last 14. The under has hit 6-2 in the last eight meetings, yet five of the last six games have exceeded 42 combined points.
Baltimore visits Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite with a 42.5 total. Lamar Jackson sat out the Ravens’ Week 5 game against Atlanta with an ankle injury, but Baltimore rallied from an eight-point deficit late to win 30-23 in overtime as a three-point underdog, ending an 0-3 ATS slide. Favorites of four points or more this season are 25-11 SU but only 13-20-3 ATS. Cleveland's three-game winning streak ended with a 17-12 loss to the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 5, but their defense remains solid, giving up 19.5 points per game since an opening loss at Jacksonville.
Baltimore's ATS record is 9-13 since 2025 began, with eight failures to cover in their last 10 games as favorites. However, they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight true road games. Historically, the Ravens dominated the Browns until recent seasons, going 23-4 SU and 17-9-1 ATS from 2008 to 2021 but only 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS since then. The total has gone over in the last five Ravens-Browns games, including four with 50-plus combined points.
The Bills are 5-1 SU/ATS after an overtime 37-34 win over the Rams on Monday Night Football, bouncing back from a Week 4 loss to the Patriots. Buffalo has won five straight regular-season road games and is 4-1 ATS in those contests.
Las Vegas has lost two straight after a 3-0 start, falling 30-27 to the Chiefs and 45-10 to New England. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games, including 4-1 at home. Their recent three games have combined for 62, 57, and 62 points. The over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Buffalo’s last four games topping the total featured 67, 72, 55, and 71 points. The over is 5-0-1 in their last six road games, including playoffs. Since 2005, the Bills and Raiders have seen the over hit 7-0-1, although only two matchups exceeded 53 points. This Week 6 game carries the highest total at 53.5 points.
Dallas enters Week 6 as a 1.5-point underdog to Green Bay with a 53-point total. In Week 5, the Cowboys lost 24-16 at home to the winless Buccaneers, a result that ended their momentum from earlier in the season. The Packers hold a slight edge on the moneyline at -120.
Favorites have been winning games but failing to cover spreads on a wide scale, especially in prime time. Underdogs have generally rewarded bettors who back them, a trend that continues as Week 6 approaches.
According to Yahoo Sports.