The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday’s AFC East clash at New Highmark Stadium as 7-point favorites against the New England Patriots, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET. The matchup carries weight for both teams, as the Bills have cruised through their first three games while the Patriots struggle to find offensive rhythm under quarterback Drake Maye.
Buffalo has scored 65 points over its past two home games, including a 36-31 shootout win in Houston, but their defense has shown vulnerabilities. The Bills rank 25th in total defense, allowing 361.3 yards per game, with particular struggles against the pass (27th, at 254.3 yards). Despite these concerns, quarterback Josh Allen has provided answers on offense. Allen leads the team with 786 passing yards—ninth in the NFL—and has thrown five touchdowns against two interceptions. He adds a significant threat on the ground with 114 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, extending his NFL record for quarterback rushing TDs to 85.
Running back James Cook III is third in the NFL in rushing yards with 346, contributing to the Bills’ overall strong ground game that ranks fourth in the league with 155.0 yards per game. Buffalo’s passing offense is also effective, ninth in the NFL with 246.7 yards per game. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has emerged as a top receiver with 263 yards, while wideouts DJ Moore and Keon Coleman have 167 and 101 yards, respectively. Josh Palmer has made an impact with two long touchdown catches of 43 and 34 yards.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have leaned on their defense to keep games close. New England ranks fifth in total defense, allowing 278.3 yards and just 17 points per game. Linebackers Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas lead the team with 1.5 sacks each. However, the offense has faltered. Maye has struggled under pressure, with nine sacks and six interceptions compared to just one touchdown pass. The absence of AJ Brown due to an ankle injury has left the Patriots without a reliable deep threat; no Patriots receiver has scored yet this season. Tight end Eli Raridon accounts for the only receiving touchdown.
New England’s receiving corps has seen some production from Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs, who combine for 18 catches and 301 yards, while Hunter Henry averages 10 yards per catch on seven receptions. The Patriots’ rushing attack is middle of the pack, 14th in the league at 109.7 yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the backfield with 116 rushing yards and 63 receiving yards, and TreVeyon Henderson has 99 rushing yards and a touchdown in limited action.
Last season, the road team won each meeting between these two rivals. The Patriots edged the Bills 23-20 at the old Highmark Stadium, while Buffalo responded with a 36-31 victory in Foxborough. In that December game, the Bills erased a 21-0 halftime deficit with five straight touchdowns, ending the Patriots’ 10-game winning streak. Buffalo has a 9-4 record against New England this decade, with half of those wins coming in the past three seasons.
Against the spread, the Bills are 11-9 in their last 20 regular-season games and finished 3-3 ATS in division games last year. As a home favorite, Buffalo is 6-3 to the over and 10-8 ATS since the start of last season. The Patriots have been solid ATS, going 12-6-2 since last year, including 4-4-1 as underdogs.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which runs 10,000 simulations per game, sees Buffalo covering the spread in 51% of outcomes but does not make a strong play either way. NFL expert R.J. White favors the Bills, citing Maye’s offensive line issues and the Patriots’ recent sloppy loss. “I don’t see the Bills’ issues sticking around, but I have serious concerns about this Patriots team,” White said. He expects Josh Allen to build a multiple-score lead that Maye cannot overcome, although he acknowledges the Patriots’ defense could keep the score within the margin.
The Bills’ third straight game at their new stadium and their offensive firepower put them in a strong position to extend their early-season momentum against a Patriots side still searching for offensive consistency.
According to CBS.
