The Philadelphia Phillies forced a decisive Game 3 against the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Series with a 4-3 victory after 10 innings on Wednesday. The winner will advance to the National League Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Thursday’s winner-takes-all game will take place at Truist Park in Atlanta, with first pitch scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The Phillies finished the regular season 88-74, second in the NL East, and posted a 46-37 record on the road, including playoff games. The Braves, division champions at 94-68, have a 53-30 record at home this season.
Philadelphia is expected to start right-hander Aaron Nola, who finished the regular season 7-12 with a 4.67 ERA. Zack Wheeler, who went 14-5 with a 3.00 ERA, is also under consideration. The Braves plan to send right-hander Grant Holmes to the mound, possibly after an opener.
Betting markets currently favor the Phillies as slight -115 money line favorites, with an over/under set at 7.5 runs. SportsLine’s projection model, which has run 10,000 simulations of the game, suggests the total will fall under 7.5 runs. The model points to a combined 7.2 runs scored, with the under hitting 59 percent of the time based on similar conditions.
The model also singles out several players likely to have a significant impact. For Philadelphia, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner are projected to accumulate 1.5 total bases or more. On the Atlanta side, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Harris are expected to reach 1.4 total bases or more.
The Phillies’ road success this season bodes well for Thursday’s game, but the Braves’ home record remains formidable, especially in the playoffs. The pitching matchup will be critical. Nola’s 4.67 ERA contrasts with Holmes’ 3.44 ERA, though the Braves may use an opener to start the game.
After Wednesday’s 10-inning thriller, both teams know the stakes clearly: only one will move on to face the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Phillies will rely on their resilience away from home, while the Braves will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and strong pitching.
The latest confirmed detail is that Aaron Nola is expected to start for Philadelphia, while Grant Holmes is set to pitch for Atlanta. The game will begin at 8 p.m. ET at Truist Park, with the winner advancing to the next round of the playoffs.
According to CBS.