Texas hosts Ohio State on Saturday, Sept. 12, as the headline game of the Week 2 college football schedule. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in the AP poll with Texas close behind at No. 4 after opening the year at No. 5. Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3 in Week 1, and Texas took down Texas State 59-7. These bluebloods squared off in Columbus last year, which Ohio State won 14-7 in a loss that proved fatal to the Longhorns, who missed the College Football Playoff. This week's game could have CFP implications once again. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction markets have priced this one as a near coin flip. A Longhorns victory is trading at $0.54 at Kalshi, while a Buckeyes victory sits at $0.48. The gap is narrow enough that the home crowd in Austin might be the deciding factor in the eyes of traders. Texas went 6-0 at home last year, and the Longhorns won each of those games by more than two points. At Polymarket, Texas to win by two or more points carries a 51% probability, while OSU to lose by one point or win outright is at 50%.
The quarterbacks are the marquee attraction. Texas' offense got off to a good start with Arch Manning passing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns, and he'll aim to have a better showing against Ohio State this year after he had 170 yards and threw a pick in the loss. Texas' offense outgained the Buckeyes in that matchup, but the Longhorns scored just once. Texas gets the luxury of being at home this time around.
The Buckeyes' defense had a great game last year in this matchup, allowing just one score. Ohio State wound up with the No. 1 scoring defense in the country in 2025. The Buckeyes' top players opened the year in good form with Julian Sayin passing for three scores, two of which went to Jeremiah Smith. Both these players had quiet games against the Longhorns last year, and Ohio State barely eclipsed 200 yards of offense.
That defensive performance was not an outlier. These defenses showcased NFL talent at all levels last year, and both figure to be very good again this year. The quarterbacks are among the biggest names in college football, but Sayin and Manning were part of a game that saw 21 total points scored. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times, expects another low-scoring affair, as these teams score less than 49.5 points in the majority of simulations.
The total market reflects that expectation, though not by much. The total score exceeding 49.5 points has a 52% probability at Polymarket, while 49 points or fewer is trading at 49%. It is the closest line on the board, a reminder that even the models see genuine uncertainty here.
Texas lost this matchup last year, and that loss was a big deal as the Longhorns went 9-3 and missed the playoff. The Buckeyes went undefeated in the regular season but lost to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and then fell to Miami in the CFP quarterfinals. Both programs have something to prove, and both have quarterbacks who were not the starters this time a year ago.
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The market pricing suggests this one comes down to a single score. Texas at home with a quarterback who threw for 300 yards in Week 1, against a defense that did not allow a touchdown in last year's meeting. The SportsLine model leans under, the public money is split, and the spread is effectively even. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the prediction markets have already made their call: this is a game that could go either way.
According to CBS.