The NFL’s Week 3 longshot parlay bets could deliver returns over +13,000,000 on a $10 wager, according to a computer simulation model from SportsLine. The model, which has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times, has locked in a five-leg parlay featuring props and player performance bets that combine into this massive payout.
One standout pick in the parlay involves the Washington Commanders, who have seen exactly six total touchdowns scored in each of their first two games this season. After losses to the Eagles in Week 1 and the Cowboys in Week 2, both games featuring six total TDs, the model suggests betting on the same outcome against Seattle in Week 3. This prop returns +400 and is among several plus-money options SportsLine highlights for bettors.
Another key component in the parlay is backing Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard as the first touchdown scorer against Cleveland. Hubbard has scored the first touchdown in both of Carolina’s opening games and has a chance to extend that streak. He has one rushing and two receiving touchdowns this season and leads the Panthers in red zone touches, especially after teammate Jonathon Brooks was placed on injured reserve. Cleveland has allowed opponents to score first in six consecutive games dating back to 2025, making Hubbard’s +425 odds a strong bet for this slot.
The simulation model behind these picks has a proven track record since 2024, with a reported $7,000 profit for $100 players through top-rated NFL picks. Ahead of Week 3, it was on a 53-41 run and has analyzed the latest NFL odds to form this longshot parlay. The full parlay, including four additional picks and a touchdown prop with odds over +2000, is available exclusively via SportsLine.
Among other props mentioned for Week 3 are bets on individual player stats. For example, Stefon Diggs topping his game in receiving yards at +425 is another option. Diggs recorded 47 yards last week, and this bet can be taken alone or added to parlays.
The model’s picks come as bettors seek to maximize returns on smaller stakes in a market where longshot parlays offer outsized payouts. The simulation’s ability to repeatedly identify plus-money bets that hit adds to its appeal, especially with the NFL season still early and player performances shaping odds.
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As Week 3 unfolds, the SportsLine model’s longshot parlay remains a focal point for bettors chasing a payout of more than $1.3 million on a $10 stake. The full details of the parlay and the individual picks are accessible through SportsLine’s platform.
According to CBS.