A proven NFL model is predicting a 25-1 payout on a Week 6 parlay that includes an upset by the Green Bay Packers over the Dallas Cowboys. The model, which runs 10,000 simulations per game and has been on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks since 2024, projects the Packers to win with a 61 percent probability against the Cowboys on Sunday night.
Green Bay enters the matchup as slight underdogs at -118 despite a strong recent history against Dallas. The Packers have won eight of the last ten meetings, with one ending in a 40-40 tie last season at AT&T Stadium. Quarterback Jordan Love has been steady through five starts this year, completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. His primary receiving threat is Christian Watson, who has 26 catches for 474 yards and six touchdowns.
Dallas, led by Dak Prescott, faces defensive struggles that could tip the balance. Prescott has a 67.2 percent completion rate with 1,381 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions so far. However, the Cowboys rank 26th in the league for points allowed per game at 27.2 and 31st for total yards allowed at 395.4. The model suggests these defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by the Packers’ offense.
The parlay includes four other picks where the model identifies significant line mispricing. One of those is an underdog with an almost 60 percent chance of winning outright, although the specific matchup has not been disclosed. The model’s track record of success has reportedly yielded more than $5,000 in profit for $100 bettors across top NFL betting sites.
Week 6 also features intriguing matchups beyond the Packers-Cowboys showdown. The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs, returning from their bye, face the winless Los Angeles Chargers who are getting +7.5 points in an AFC West clash. The 5-0 San Francisco 49ers host the Washington Commanders (+7.5) on Monday Night Football, aiming to maintain their unbeaten record alongside Minnesota, which is on a bye this week.
Other notable games include Chicago Bears versus Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) and Pittsburgh Steelers taking on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5). Michael Penix has been cleared to play for Atlanta, while Caleb Williams remains a game-time decision due to a hamstring injury.
SportsLine is the exclusive source for the model’s detailed Week 6 NFL picks and parlay advice. The computer-driven approach has been a reliable guide for bettors since 2024, consistently identifying edges in NFL betting markets.
The Packers-Cowboys game kicks off Sunday at 8:20 p.m. Eastern, with the model’s prediction adding a compelling angle to a rivalry that ended in a high-scoring draw last year. The latest confirmed development remains the model’s confident backing of Green Bay to upset Dallas as part of a five-leg parlay offering a potential 25-1 return.
According to CBS.
