The first weekend of the NFL season already took a sizeable bite out of survivor pools across the country, and the damage was concentrated in one very public place. The Los Angeles Chargers, a consensus Week 1 pick for many entrants, fell 26-14 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. That single result wiped out $10.3 million in survivor equity across two contests at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, according to vice president Mike Palm.
For those still alive, Week 2 presents a fresh set of decisions, and the board is loaded with heavy favorites. Six teams are favored by seven points or more. The San Francisco 49ers sit as the biggest of the week at -13.5 against the Miami Dolphins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens are both -8.5 against the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints respectively. The Philadelphia Eagles are -7 on the road against the Tennessee Titans, while the Chargers and Los Angeles Rams are both -7 against the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants.
R.J. White, the top NFL against-the-spread expert at SportsLine over the past nine years, has looked at all of them. White has gone 803-705-41 against the spread since 2017, putting him up more than 27 units on those picks. He has also delivered a 55% hit rate on his Vegas contest picks over the last 11 seasons, with two finishes in the money, including an 18th place showing out of 2,748 entries in 2017. In Week 1, he avoided the Chargers and backed the Jacksonville Jaguars, who handled the Browns 34-10.
This week, White is steering clear of the 49ers, even though San Francisco is expected to be the consensus selection. The -926 money line price reflects the market's confidence, but White sees a specific problem: travel. The 49ers are making their return after playing the Rams in Australia just a week and a half earlier. That long-distance turnaround could have a clear effect on performance, and White is not willing to absorb that risk in a spot where the team is expected to win easily.
"The 49ers seem destined to be the consensus pick this week after destroying the Super Bowl favorite on a neutral field," White told SportsLine. "That would steer me away from them anyway, but we should also be worried about the effect that traveling to and from Australia will have on a team in a sleepy spot where they're expected to get an easy win."
The Dolphins, meanwhile, do not have much of a travel issue. Despite being the road team, they have stayed all week on the West Coast after playing in Las Vegas in Week 1. Miami also looked better than the 27-13 final score indicated in that loss. Quarterback Malik Willis completed 15 of 27 passes for 220 yards and one interception, and he led the team in rushing with six carries for 39 yards and a score. Rookie third-round pick Caleb Douglas had a solid debut at wide receiver with five receptions for 94 yards.
White is also thinking about the rest of the season. He notes that there is another team with less future value on the board this week, which is why he is saving the 49ers for later. He is comfortable holding onto a couple of his heavy hitters and has instead found a surprising team to jump on in Week 2 while it still makes sense.
"There will only be one or two spots where people will feel comfortable using (them)," White said.
The logic is straightforward. Survivor pools are about scarcity as much as they are about winning. Using a top-tier team in a week where a lesser option is nearly as safe depletes future equity. White's Week 1 call on the Jaguars showed he is willing to go against the grain when the numbers support it. His Week 2 pick is available at SportsLine, and it comes with the full season in view rather than just the immediate slate.
According to CBS.
