Air Force enters Saturday’s showdown against Navy as a 3-point favorite, but the Midshipmen are positioned to cover the spread in the opening leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy race. According to SportsLine’s simulation model, which runs every FBS game 10,000 times, Navy covers the +3 spread in more than 60 percent of the scenarios, making it an A-rated pick for Week 5 college football betting.
The Falcons will host the noon ET kickoff on CBS and Paramount+, but home-field advantage hasn’t translated well for Air Force in recent matchups against FBS opponents. The team has lost six straight against the spread at home, and they also carry a five-game straight-up losing streak in the Commander-in-Chief's series against Navy. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen have posted a 4-1 straight-up record as underdogs against unranked teams, adding context to their chances this weekend.
Navy’s ground game is expected to be a factor, with running back Vic Listorti projected to rush for nearly 150 yards. The model’s confidence in Navy’s ability to cover comes despite Air Force’s favorite status and home venue. The game’s total is set at 45.5 points.
Elsewhere in Week 5, the model recommends Missouri as a home underdog (+5.5) against No. 8 Florida. The Tigers have won the last four meetings at home against the Gators and hold a 23-3 record in their last 26 home games. Florida, despite its ranking, has accumulated 357 penalty yards—the fourth-most in FBS this season—and carries a 0-3 straight-up record as a road favorite against ranked opponents since 2010. The model projects Missouri to cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations, with the under hitting over half the time.
The model’s picks have been on a 32-24 run recently, returning nearly $600 on a $100 stake for top-rated college football bets. It has also highlighted other matchups with notable spreads, such as No. 14 Iowa entering as a 14.5-point underdog at home against No. 5 Ohio State. Alabama is favored by 5.5 points over Mississippi State, and Florida is a 5.5-point road favorite at Missouri.
Saturday’s full slate includes Michigan at Minnesota (+6), Notre Dame at North Carolina (+21.5), Auburn at Tennessee (-6.5), Miami at Clemson (+15.5), Texas Tech at Colorado (+13.5), and Washington at USC (-9), among others.
The latest simulations and picks from SportsLine can be accessed for bettors aiming to navigate Week 5’s college football landscape. The Navy-Air Force game will be the first step in the three-team competition for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, with Navy looking to snap Air Force’s home struggles and extend its own solid run against unranked opponents this season.
According to CBS.
