Three MLB teams face elimination after falling behind 0-2 in their Division Series, with the Padres, Guardians, and Yankees all clinging to slim hopes of a comeback in the best-of-five format. Historically, only 10 teams have overturned such a deficit, and none since the 2017 Yankees have done so in recent years.
The Padres return home to Petco Park after two road losses to the Brewers, who have dominated early with starters Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. Despite the Brewers' strong start, the Padres have a chance to regroup with a full bullpen available for Game 3 following a day off. Nick Pivetta, who performed solidly in the Wild Card Series against the Cubs, could provide stability on the mound. Still, the Brewers’ pitching depth beyond their top starters makes the Padres’ path uphill, though not impossible.
The Guardians face a different challenge. They are down 0-2 against the Chicago White Sox, an 84-win team that has thrived in the playoffs with a 4-0 record so far, largely thanks to bullpen strategies. The Guardians, with 85 wins in the regular season, are confronting a squad that has taken four of six meetings this year in Chicago. Parker Messick is slated to start Game 4 for the Guardians, who would need to win Game 3 to push the series to a decisive Game 5. However, Messick’s previous start in Game 1 ended in a loss, and the White Sox’s recent playoff form suggests the Guardians face a steep climb.
Of the three teams trailing 0-2, the Yankees appear to have the best chance of staging a comeback, though this remains unlikely. After sweeping the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series with an 18-2 run differential, New York’s lineup has struggled against the Rays’ pitching in the ALDS. The Yankees have Max Fried ready for Game 3, with Carlos Rodón and a combination of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler potentially available for Game 5. Both Fried and Rodón are left-handers, which could exploit the Rays’ weaker offense against left-handed pitching (.678 OPS versus .751 against right-handers).
The Rays’ Game 3 starter Nick Martinez has a 4.24 ERA over his last nine starts, and the Yankees beat him 2-0 on September 22. Returning to Yankee Stadium, where the team posted a .755 OPS during the regular season compared with .688 on the road, may offer some advantage. Still, the Yankees’ offense was stifled in Tampa Bay, and the Rays’ pitching staff deserves credit for that.
The Brewers, White Sox, and Rays all have the upper hand in their respective series. The Padres, Guardians, and Yankees must win three straight games to advance. The rarity of such comebacks in MLB history, combined with the current form and pitching matchups, suggests the most likely outcome is that all three teams will be eliminated. The Yankees remain the best-positioned among them, but even they face long odds.
According to CBS.
