It's anyone's guess who'll be winning the Ballon d'Or this year after the World Cup threw a bit of a spanner in the works.
According to a Reddit user who devised a system to statistically work out who deserves the top prize, Harry Kane is currently leading the pack with an impressive 80.0 score. This model takes into account various metrics such as goals, assists, goal contributions, trophies, all-competition Player of the Match awards, and major individual honours. Kane is closely followed by Lionel Messi, who scored 74.8, and Michael Olise with 61.5.
The World Cup has a massive weighting on the Ballon d'Or every four years, but this year's winning team had an unusual dynamic. Rodri, the star player, wasn't regularly at his best over the course of the club season with Manchester City. Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal, who was brilliant for title-winning Barcelona, wasn't as influential to Spain's World Cup win.
The model uses a simple weighted model to produce a provisional ranking, with 40% of the score coming from goals and assists, 20% from Player of the Match awards, 20% from trophies, 12% from Player of the Season/Tournament awards, and 8% from Golden Boots. It's worth noting that the model naturally favours attackers, which applies to almost all of the listed favourites apart from Rodri.
The ranking is as follows: Harry Kane – 80.0, Lionel Messi – 74.8, Michael Olise – 61.5, Erling Haaland – 60.8, Lamine Yamal – 59.9, Ousmane Dembele – 57.6, Kylian Mbappe – 56.5, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – 56.4, Bruno Fernandes – 41.8, Luis Diaz – 41.0, Denis Undav – 33.0, and Rodri – 25.8.
The top goalscorers for club and country in 2026 so far, including Kane, will be closely watched as the season progresses. While Kane currently leads the pack, it's still anyone's guess who'll ultimately win the Ballon d'Or. We'll find out on October 26.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or winner will be announced on October 26, and fans around the world will be eagerly awaiting the results.
Source: Planet Football
