The Cy-Hawk rivalry resumes on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium with Iowa State chasing a fourth win in five meetings and a new head coach in charge. The Cyclones kicked off the Jimmy Rogers era with a 38-10 win over Southeast Missouri State. Iowa opened with a 40-0 shutout of Northern Illinois.
The matchup carries a betting angle that has been remarkably one-sided. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set at 41.5, and the Under has cashed in the last four meetings between these programs. Eight straight contests have stayed below 45 points. CBS Research puts the Under at 18-3 in the last 21 clashes in this series.
Rogers arrives in Ames after a 6-6 season at Washington State in 2025. He inherits a roster that was largely stripped when Matt Campbell took most of the 2025 group with him to Penn State. The Cyclones are effectively starting over, and that transition showed in how they handled an overmatched FCS opponent in Week 1.
Arkansas State transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor looked comfortable in his Iowa State debut, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for two more against SEMO. Running back Aiden Flora and receiver Dominic Overby stepped into bigger roles and delivered. Pass rusher Isaac Terrell, who followed Rogers to Ames from Washington State, logged three sacks in the opener after posting seven last year for the Cougars.
Iowa remains under Kirk Ferentz, who has won at least eight games in four of the last five seasons prior to 2026. The Hawkeyes have a quarterback competition that is still unresolved. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski both saw action in Week 1, with Brown looking more polished overall. It is logical to expect Brown to start on Saturday, but Hecklinski could see playing time if Ferentz believes the competition remains close.
The Hawkeyes have a clear focal point on offense. Running back Kamari Moulton went for 183 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries against Northern Illinois. He did not play in this matchup a year ago, and Iowa believes he can be the difference in ending its recent skid against the in-state rival.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has the Over 41.5 hitting in 58.5% of simulations. The model is on a 33-20 run on top-rated college football money-line picks since the 2024 season and has been upgraded for 2026 to factor in the transfer portal more heavily.
The model's lean runs against the recent history of this series. The Under has been the consistent play when these two meet, and the circumstances this year reinforce that trend. Iowa State is breaking in a new system with a new quarterback. Iowa's own quarterback situation is unsettled heading into Week 2. Those factors tend to suppress scoring early in a season.
Moulton's explosiveness is the counterargument. He averaged over 16 yards per carry in the opener and gives Iowa a run game that can control the clock and shorten the game. That style of play typically helps the Under, not the Over.
The Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings. Iowa's 2023 victory was officially vacated by the NCAA, which means the Hawkeyes have not recorded a win in this rivalry since 2021. That history hangs over the matchup, even with both teams coming off comfortable Week 1 wins.
Rogers brought several pieces with him from Washington State, and Terrell's early production suggests the defensive scheme is translating. The Cyclones will need more from their offense against an Iowa defense that posted a shutout in Week 1.
The last four games in this rivalry have all gone Under 41.5 points, and eight straight have stayed below 45. The Under is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings. That's the play.
According to CBS.