The most interesting fantasy football plays this week aren't the obvious ones. They are the players outside the top 10 at their position who have a path to outkick their ranking, and the data suggests there are several worth targeting in Week 1.
Kyler Murray is a favorite quarterback start this week, and not because Green Bay suddenly became a bad pass defense. It didn't. The Packers allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt last season. The angle is what their pass rush looks like without Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary, followed by what Murray can do when the pocket breaks down. Parsons will miss Week 1 while finishing his ACL recovery, and Gary was traded to Dallas. Green Bay allowed 0.45 fantasy points per pass attempt with Parsons off the field last season compared with 0.38 when he was on it.
Murray has averaged 33.3 rushing yards per game over the last five seasons. The projection has him at 32 this week, which is 3.2 fantasy points. That is 80% of a four-point passing touchdown just from his legs. Now put him in Kevin O'Connell's offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson. If Green Bay can't consistently get home off the edge, Murray gets more time to find those weapons. If the pocket collapses, he has another path to fantasy points. ECR has him QB16. The projection has him QB13 with a 10% chance to clear 27 fantasy points.
Bucky Irving faces a Cincinnati defense that should be better this season. It also has a long way to go. The Bengals allowed an NFL-high 2,500 rushing yards last season at 5.2 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns. They also allowed the seventh-highest explosive-run rate and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt to running backs. Dexter Lawrence II, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe change the look of this front. Those are legitimate additions. The question is whether three new pieces erase everything that went wrong a year ago.
Tampa Bay also gets healthy up front. Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke are all listed as starters after injuries kept that group from playing together last season. Zac Robinson is also bringing more wide-zone concepts into the offense, giving Irving more chances to attack space. Kenneth Gainwell creates some workload risk, but the efficiency upside is the play here. Irving hits in 40% of simulations with an 8% boom rate. At RB19 against a defense that gave up 2,500 rushing yards a year ago, that is worth a look.
D'Andre Swift rushed for 1,087 yards at 4.9 yards per carry last season and scored 10 touchdowns. Now he gets Carolina. From Weeks 12 through 18, the Panthers allowed the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, the ninth-highest missed-tackle rate and the seventh-most EPA per rush. Those are weaknesses Swift can exploit. He finished 13th among qualifying backs in explosive-run rate and 11th in rushing success rate. Give him a crease and he can turn it into a chunk play.
Chicago should also be able to hold up inside with Joe Thuney, Garrett Bradbury, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright. Kyle Monangai will take some goal-line work, but Swift maintained a 43% route share from Weeks 10 through 18 compared with 28.8% for Monangai. That gives him another way to get there even if the red-zone carries are split. Swift hits in 42% of simulations with a 10% boom rate. At RB13 on Yahoo and RB15 in ECR, this matchup gives him a real chance to push into the top-end outcomes at the position.
Zay Flowers does not have an easy matchup with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the other side. The opportunity is in how Baltimore can force Indianapolis to defend him. Gardner and Ward played only one full game together last season. Justin Walley is preparing for his first NFL regular-season snap after a torn ACL wiped out his rookie year, and Cam Taylor-Britt is suspended for Week 1. There is talent in that secondary, but Baltimore can make them communicate. Move Flowers around. Put him in motion. Stack his release. Get him inside. Don't let Gardner line up across from him all afternoon.
Flowers had a 27% target-per-route-run rate and averaged 2.85 yards per route run against single-high coverage last season. Indianapolis also gave up 4,462 passing yards and 57 completions of at least 20 yards. Flowers is coming off career highs with 86 catches and 1,211 yards. He hits in 46% of simulations with a 13% boom rate and 3% nuke rate. At WR13, the bet is on Baltimore creating the type of matchup that gives Flowers access to his ceiling.
Tee Higgins is probably the favorite receiver play on this list. Yes, Ja'Marr Chase is one of the best wide receivers in football. But Higgins is one of the best WR2s and has already operated like a legitimate fantasy WR1 when he's healthy and on the field. He caught only 59 passes last season and still finished with 846 yards.
According to Yahoo Sports.