The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday’s AFC East clash against the New England Patriots as 6.5-point favorites at New Highmark Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. The Bills have started their season strongly at home, scoring 65 points in their first two games at the new stadium, though their defense has allowed 47 points in those outings.
Quarterback Josh Allen has been central to Buffalo’s offense, posting 786 passing yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. He adds 114 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, extending his NFL record for quarterback rushing scores to 85. Running back James Cook III complements Allen well, ranking third in the NFL with 346 rushing yards. The Bills rank fourth in the league in total yards (401.7 per game) and rushing yards (155.0), while their passing offense sits ninth with 246.7 yards per game.
Buffalo’s receiving corps features tight end Dalton Kincaid leading with 263 yards, while DJ Moore and Keon Coleman have each surpassed 100 receiving yards. Josh Palmer has contributed with two touchdown receptions of 43 and 34 yards. Despite the offensive firepower, the Bills’ defense has struggled, ranking 25th in total yards allowed (361.3) and 27th against the pass (254.3). They concede 26 points per game and have a minus-2 turnover differential.
The Patriots’ defense has performed better statistically, ranking fifth in total defense at 278.3 yards allowed per game and giving up just 17 points on average. Linebackers Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas lead the team with 1.5 sacks each, and the unit has forced three takeaways. However, New England’s offense has struggled under rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has one touchdown against six interceptions and has been sacked nine times. Maye’s confidence appears low, compounded by the loss of star receiver AJ Brown to an ankle injury. No Patriots receiver has scored yet, except tight end Eli Raridon.
The Patriots’ receiving options have produced some yardage, with Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs combining for 301 yards on 18 receptions, and tight end Hunter Henry averaging 10 yards per catch over seven receptions. The running game ranks 14th with 109.7 yards per game, led by Rhamondre Stevenson’s 116 rushing and 63 receiving yards. TreVeyon Henderson has 99 rushing yards and one touchdown in two games, averaging 4.1 yards per carry.
Last season, the road team won both meetings between these AFC East rivals. The Patriots won 23-20 at the old Highmark Stadium, while the Bills erased a 21-0 first-half deficit with five straight touchdowns to win 36-31 in Foxborough, ending New England’s 10-game winning streak. The Bills hold a 9-4 record against the Patriots this decade, with three wins in the past three seasons.
Against the spread, Buffalo is 11-9 over the past 20 regular-season games and was 3-3 ATS in division games last season. They have gone 6-3 to the Over as a home favorite since last season began and hold a 10-8 ATS record as a favorite over that span. New England is 12-6-2 ATS since last season started, including 4-4-1 as an underdog.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which runs 10,000 simulations per game, predicts Buffalo will cover the spread in 51% of those simulations. NFL expert R.J. White supports the Bills, citing Maye’s offensive line struggles and a sloppy Patriots loss last week. White said, “I don’t see the Bills’ issues sticking around, but I have serious concerns about this Patriots team. Maybe the Patriots’ defense bounces back and keeps the Bills within margin, but I’ll trust Josh Allen to build a multiple-score lead that Maye won’t be able to overcome.”
DraftKings Sportsbook set the Over/Under at 48.5 points for the matchup, offering bettors a chance to wager with a $150 bonus bet promotion for bets of $5 or more on the game. The Bills, aiming to strengthen their home dominance, face a Patriots team still searching for offensive rhythm behind Maye as they meet Sunday.
According to CBS.
