The NFL has seen nine overtime games in the past five weeks, with at least one OT contest every week, making a bet on a Week 10 overtime game a longshot that could pay off handsomely. SportsLine’s computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has locked in a seven-leg parlay for Week 10 that includes overtime predictions and a Blake Corum touchdown, with a payout potential close to $2.2 million on a $10 bet.
Targeting overtime games in Week 10 involves focusing on matchups with close spreads. SportsLine notes that a game with a spread of three points or less that goes to overtime pays out roughly +1300, while a game with a touchdown or larger spread that hits OT returns around +1800. Six of the last eight overtime games this season have been interconference matchups, which helps narrow down contenders for this week. Sunday’s games fitting this profile include the Patriots vs. Lions (Lions favored by 3), Chiefs vs. Falcons (Falcons +3.5), and Raiders vs. Seahawks (Seahawks favored by 6.5).
The Chiefs will be without Kenneth Walker III due to a groin injury, but recently picked up wide receiver Josh Downs from the Colts in a trade. This could impact their offensive dynamics and influence the outcome in a closely contested game.
Alongside the overtime bets, the parlay includes Blake Corum scoring a touchdown anytime against the Cardinals. Corum has found the end zone in five straight games and has been increasing his workload, averaging 13.3 touches over the last three weeks compared to 8.3 touches in the four games before that. With Rams receiver Puka Nacua sidelined and no other healthy receivers with more than 11 catches, Corum’s role in the offense should grow.
Corum has all 11 of his red-zone touches within this recent five-game stretch, including a 15-yard touchdown reception against Arizona in Week 6. Arizona’s defense has allowed the second-most points per game this season and conceded three rushing touchdowns in their last five games, with Corum scoring three total touchdowns versus the Cardinals over his last three outings. SportsLine’s model projects Corum with a 0.49 touchdown rate, the second-highest for players in the Rams vs. Cardinals matchup.
The model, which has earned more than $5,000 for $100 bettors on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, enters Week 10 with a 62-52 record on those picks. It has translated its simulations and odds analysis into a seven-leg parlay that includes multiple winning margin predictions, each offering returns around +400.
SportsLine’s full Week 10 parlay is available exclusively on their platform. The model’s ability to generate high-value longshot bets has been demonstrated in recent weeks, and this latest parlay could produce a payout near $2.2 million from a modest $10 wager.
The Seven-leg parlay combines overtime outcomes, touchdown props, and margin predictions from some of Sunday’s closest games. Bettors interested in replicating this approach can find the complete picks on SportsLine’s website. The promotion also includes offers like a $55 bonus with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55 after $25 in trades and a $25 bonus on Polymarket with the CBSSPORTS code.
With nine overtime games in five weeks confirming the plausibility of betting on close contests extending beyond regulation, this Week 10 NFL longshot parlay blends data-driven insights with specific player props, including Blake Corum’s scoring trend against a struggling Cardinals defense.
According to CBS.
