SportsLine's computer model has crunched the numbers for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, and it sees a familiar NFC East power covering the spread at home. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is projecting the Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Washington Commanders 27-18 on Sunday, with the Eagles covering the 5.5-point spread in 59% of simulations.
Philadelphia has owned this rivalry recently, winning seven of the past 10 meetings against Washington. The Eagles are 3-1 in their past four home games against the Commanders, and the betting market has them favored by 5.5 points at home, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Over/Under for total points in that game is set at 44.
The Eagles lost AJ Brown this offseason, but the offense still has Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith. Barkley had a breakout performance in his only appearance against the Commanders last season, racking up 132 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Washington's run defense was a weakness in 2025, giving up 141.8 rushing yards per game, which ranked 30th in the NFL.
The model is also backing the Detroit Lions to cover the spread as 7-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints. Detroit's offense was one of the most explosive in the league last season, averaging 28.3 points per game, which ranked fifth. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs signed a lucrative deal this offseason after putting up 3,768 yards from scrimmage and 38 touchdowns in 34 regular-season games over the past two campaigns.
Gibbs could have a productive day against a New Orleans defense that allowed 120.6 rushing yards per game in 2025. The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting Gibbs to average 4.8 yards per carry against the Saints, which would help Detroit secure a double-digit victory. The Saints are expected to be without running back Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a knee injury.
Elsewhere in Week 1, the model is calling for the Under to hit in the NFC North clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. The total is set at 45.5, and the Under hits 59% of the time in simulations. These two teams failed to exceed 30 points in both of their meetings last season, and Minnesota walked away with a 16-3 victory at home against the Packers in their most recent matchup. The Under is 5-0 in the Vikings' last five games at home, and the model is projecting these two teams to combine for 42 points on Sunday.
Other notable Week 1 betting lines include the Buffalo Bills facing the Houston Texans, with the Texans getting 1.5 points, the Baltimore Ravens favored by 3.5 over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Dallas Cowboys favored by 2.5 over the New York Giants.
The model has a strong track record. It's up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, and it enters Week 16 on a 52-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anyone following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Combining the model's three Week 1 picks into a single parlay would result in a payout of +585, meaning a $100 wager would return $585. That parlay can be placed at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is offering up to $350 in bonus bets for new users. New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets after a first $5 bet, or the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS, which offers up to $1,500 in bonus bets if the first bet loses.
The model's full Week 1 picks, including against the spread, total and money line selections for every game, are available on SportsLine. The model has simulated every game 10,000 times to arrive at its projections.
According to CBS.