Week 1 stats can mislead, but the gap between the Green Bay Packers' deep passing and the Minnesota Vikings' deep coverage is wide enough to matter on Sunday. According to NFL Pro data, the Packers ranked fifth in the league last season on throws 20 or more yards downfield. The Vikings ranked 28th at defending them. That is not a small margin. It is the difference between an offense that attacks the field vertically and a secondary that gets beaten over the top.
The rest of the Vikings' defensive profile makes the matchup even more lopsided. Minnesota ranked sixth against short passes and third against intermediate throws. They were stout underneath, compact in the middle of the field. But the deep ball was their weakness, and deep passing happens to be the Packers' specialty. The numbers line up like a warning sign.
Jordan Love's production changes dramatically depending on who is on the field with him. With Christian Watson active, Love averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt. Without Watson, that number dropped to 7.8. The difference is not subtle. It shows a quarterback who trusts his receiver to run under the ball and adjusts his entire approach when that option is available.
The touchdown numbers tell the same story. Love threw five touchdowns on passes 20 or more yards downfield last season. Three went to Watson, and a fourth came on a play with Watson on the field. That leaves exactly one deep touchdown all year with Watson off the field. One. The Packers' vertical passing game essentially runs through one player, and that player is healthy and available for Week 1.
Watson's individual numbers from the back half of the season are just as striking. From Week 8 onward, he averaged 17.6 air yards per target, the second highest mark among qualifying receivers during that stretch. He also hauled in nine receptions on deep passes, the most in the league over that same period. He was not just running deep routes. He was winning them at a rate nobody else matched.
Then there is the blitz factor. Brian Flores loves to send pressure, and the Packers know it. Love handled blitzes about as well as any quarterback in the league last season. His EPA per play against the blitz was plus 0.30, tied for the best mark with Matthew Stafford. For reference, Drake Maye led the entire league in overall EPA per play last season at plus 0.25. Love was better against the blitz than Maye was against everything.
What makes that number more impressive is how Love operates under pressure. His time to throw when blitzed was 2.78 seconds, which means he was not dumping the ball off to the first open receiver. He was holding the ball, drifting away from pressure, and keeping his eyes downfield. His deep throw percentage when blitzed sat at 13.2 percent, fifth in the league. He threw off his back foot when he had to, and it worked.
The combination is what matters here. Flores will blitz because that is what he does. Love will respond by looking deep because that is what he does, and because Watson gives him a reason to. The Vikings were poor at defending the deep ball even when they knew it was coming. Against a quarterback who does not panic under pressure and a receiver who led the league in deep receptions, that weakness gets exposed.
Football can be complicated, but this matchup is not. When the blitz comes, the Packers have the personnel to make Minnesota pay for it. Love's ability to stay calm in the pocket and throw accurately downfield, combined with Watson's knack for getting open deep, creates a simple equation for Green Bay's offense. The Vikings can bring pressure, but they cannot cover the deep third at the same time.
The stats from last season point in one direction. The Packers were elite at throwing deep. The Vikings were among the worst at defending it. Love's production with Watson on the field dwarfs his numbers without him. Watson's deep reception total led the league. And when Flores brings the blitz, Love has already shown he can beat it with the deep ball. Sunday will show whether the pattern holds.
According to Yahoo Sports.