Every Tuesday during the NFL season, a renowned sports expert releases an article at Yahoo Sports, noting early bets that he believes will gain closing line value and carry positive expected value into the weekend's games.
The expert, who had a remarkable 60.6% win rate last season, is now looking to maintain an ROI close to double digits betting early NFL sides and totals. This week, he's sharing two Week 1 NFL bets, as the lines have populated across the marketplace.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 41.5) is one of the expert's favored matchups. He believes the Falcons can vastly outperform their preseason expectations, thanks in part to the arrival of head coach Kevin Stefanski, who won Coach Of the Year twice in his six-year tenure with the Cleveland Browns. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be named the starting quarterback, with a 78% chance of doing so according to the prediction markets.
The expert notes that having a pass rush that can get to Aaron Rodgers with pressure is critical, and Stefanski has game planned extensively against the Steelers for the past six years. Atlanta's defensive coordinator, Jeff Ulbrich, has a personal vendetta against Rodgers, who he overlapped with during his time with the New York Jets.
The expert is backing the Falcons +3, citing the significant value of this half-point line movement in betting across any sport.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5) is the other matchup that has caught the expert's attention. He's looking at the game total, and notes that any line movement towards the under is more valuable than movement towards the over. The Super Bowl finished with a total of 42, and the market was sharply bet towards the under.
The Seahawks have been affected by key departures, including their offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, and Super Bowl 60 MVP running back Kenneth Walker. Replacement running back Zach Charbonnet is unlikely to be at full strength for Week 1. Meanwhile, the Patriots have acquired A.J. Brown, but it's hard to believe his timing and rhythm with Drake Maye will be at full strength in Week 1.
The expert believes that the statistics will regress, and the Patriots' explosive play rate should drop. He's backing the under 44.5, citing the value of this line movement.
These two bets are just the beginning of the expert's Week 1 NFL picks. With the season now underway, it's time to put his predictions to the test.
Source: Yahoo Sports