Since 2005, quarterbacks have won 16 of the past 21 Heisman trophies, with the average winner having just 1.25 losses. This reality hasn't changed, and the Heisman is still overwhelmingly a quarterback award.
To win the Heisman, a quarterback needs production, winning, national exposure, and a story that builds week to week. Picking the right quarterback takes more than projecting big numbers.
Roughly two-thirds of winners started the year with a team ranked outside the AP top five, giving voters a chance to watch them climb rather than simply meet expectations. The Heisman isn't just a prize for the best player; it goes to the player who gives voters a reason to change their minds as the season plays out.
Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback, is a preseason favorite, but his path to the Heisman is uncertain. With a brutal schedule, including four true toss-up games on the road, Manning faces a tough road to justify being the preseason favorite. His price, closer to 13-1 to win the award, makes him a player to bet into during the season rather than buy before Week 1.
Josh Hoover, the Indiana quarterback, is a dark horse candidate. He entered the portal as one of the best quarterbacks available, throwing for more than 7,000 yards and 56 touchdowns over his past two seasons at TCU. With a consistent offense behind him, Hoover has every physical tool to thrive in the system.
Indiana's quarterback success is largely due to its coaching staff and system. With a favorable schedule, including marquee games against Ohio State and USC, Hoover won't just be a fun surprise if the Hoosiers win 11 or 12 games again. He'll be in New York as a legitimate finalist.
Darian Mensah, the Miami FL quarterback, has seen his stock climb faster than most. After breaking out at Tulane and leading the ACC in passing, Mensah takes over at Miami as Carson Beck's replacement, with the most talented roster he's ever had around him. His jump in supporting cast is real, and I expect his production to take another leap because of it.
Mensah's deep ball is a notable aspect of his game, and he's more mobile than he gets credit for. He uses subtle movement to buy time while calmly working through his reads. His production is set to take another leap with the improved roster around him.
The Heisman Opportunity Index is a framework for evaluating candidates. A player needs three things: an elite team capable of winning 11 or 12 games, national television windows that put him in front of voters, and defining moments against quality opponents that separate him from the field. With that in mind, the odds for the Heisman are still uncertain, and the season is set to play out.
Source: Yahoo Sports