The Jacksonville Jaguars hold a slight edge over the Houston Texans ahead of their AFC South clash at Wembley Stadium, with the latest SportsLine Projection Model giving the Jaguars a 54% chance of victory. The game kicks off Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET in London, where both teams, coming off recent strong performances, will look to assert dominance on a defense-heavy matchup.
Jacksonville’s narrow 27-24 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles came courtesy of a last-second drive set up by Ameer Abdullah’s 53-yard kickoff return, leading to Cam Little’s 48-yard field goal. The Jaguars amassed 408 yards to the Eagles’ 232, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence throwing for 331 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Parker Washington caught both of those touchdown passes and finished with 124 yards. The team’s defense has been effective in limiting points, ranking second in the NFL by allowing just 14 per game, despite conceding 330 yards per contest.
Houston enters the game after a mixed start to the season, recovering with a solid defensive performance against the Tennessee Titans. The Texans limited Tennessee to 182 yards, forced two turnovers, and recorded four sacks. Quarterback C.J. Stroud contributed 261 yards and a touchdown through the air. Houston’s defense, once expected to lead the team to a title run after a 12-5 season last year, ranks 11th in total defense, allowing 312.4 yards per game, though they still concede 22.4 points on average. The SportsLine model projects Houston to win in 46% of simulations, reflecting a close contest.
On the prediction market app Kalshi, which offers event contracts on NFL games, Jacksonville’s win is trading at $0.58 per share, implying a 58% probability, while Houston’s victory stands at $0.43 per share, or 43%. Kalshi is offering a $55 sign-up bonus using the promo code CBSSPORTS55 for new users who make trades of $25 or more. This promotion aligns with increased interest in the game, which features two teams with defenses that shape the contest but quarterbacks capable of high outputs.
Both offenses have shown the ability to move the ball effectively. Lawrence’s connection with Washington continues to grow, with Washington already tallying four touchdowns this season. Houston’s Stroud, despite dealing with injuries to key receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, has options in Kayshon Boutte and tight end Dalton Schultz. The SportsLine model predicts the two teams will combine for more than 43.5 points nearly half the time, reflecting an expectation of an open but competitive game.
The Jaguars are favored by more than 2.5 points in 50% of the model’s simulations, while Houston losing by fewer than 2.5 points or winning outright trades at $0.48 on Kalshi. Jacksonville winning by three or more points trades at $0.53, indicating a market split on the margin of victory.
Kalshi emphasizes user safety and offers risk management tools such as trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and personalized funding limits. The platform operates under regulations from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with trading involving substantial risk and subject to eligibility requirements in various jurisdictions.
Sunday’s game will test Jacksonville’s bend-but-don’t-break defense against a Texans unit aiming to regain the form that brought them deep into the playoffs last season. Both teams’ defenses and quarterbacks will be central to the outcome, with the SportsLine model and Kalshi’s markets signaling a tightly contested matchup at Wembley.
According to CBS.
