Deshaun Watson’s performances for the Cleveland Browns this season have swung between moments of promise and stretches of struggle, reflecting a rollercoaster of production that leaves his future with the team uncertain. According to Expected Points Added (EPA) metrics, which measure how much each play increases a team’s chance of scoring, Watson’s overall EPA per play through the first four weeks of the 2025 season sits at a barely positive +0.02 over 157 plays—a figure that would place him tied for 18th among last season’s 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks.
Watson’s EPA across individual quarters illuminates the unevenness that has marked his play. His best quarter is the fourth, where he posts a +0.23 EPA on 54 plays, suggesting he can produce strong late-game moments. In week two’s fourth quarter, he would have led the league if that level of performance had been consistent. On the other hand, his first quarter numbers are troubling, with a -0.29 EPA over 29 plays, ranking him last at that stage of the game among quarterbacks in 2025.
Week one was particularly difficult, with a total EPA of -0.24 and a first quarter EPA of -1.40, positioning him near the bottom of the league alongside Shedeur Sanders. Weeks three and four show some recovery, with week four producing a slight positive total EPA of +0.07 despite a -1.01 dip in the third quarter. This volatility underpins the description of his play as a “rollercoaster,” with flashes of league-leading impact offset by stretches that would raise questions about his NFL viability.
The league-wide data on EPA per quarter reveals a general trend of stability among quarterbacks, with average EPA per play hovering between +0.016 and +0.026 in the first three quarters. The fourth quarter typically sees a drop to -0.073 on average, attributed to increased risk-taking or lower intensity as games conclude. Top-performing quarterbacks last season followed a similar pattern but maintained a positive EPA even in the fourth quarter (+0.034). Watson’s numbers fall well below that benchmark.
Looking ahead, Watson’s role with the Browns is shaping up to be that of a short-term bridge quarterback through the 2027 season. Industry assessments suggest that the idea of a $50 million franchise tag or a long-term contract is unrealistic given his inconsistency. Instead, a one-year extension in the range of $7 million to $15 million seems more plausible. If Watson manages to guide the Browns to playoff wins, that could improve his bargaining position, though such success would currently be considered unlikely.
The Browns’ roster depth and relatively easier schedule this season may allow them to avoid high draft picks in 2026, complicating efforts to select a franchise quarterback through the draft. Even trading away two first-round picks might not attract a team desperate for a quarterback to move down in the draft order. Recent draft trends show that starting quarterbacks come from all rounds, with only 12 of the 36 week one starters last season coming from picks 1 to 3, and 15 starting quarterbacks selected beyond the top 10.
This context puts pressure on Watson to provide steadier performances. If he can avoid quarters with EPA per play below -1.00 and maintain consistent positive contributions around +0.2 EPA, the Browns could have a more reliable bridge quarterback while grooming a younger prospect. The team’s offensive scheme under coordinator Monken could benefit from Watson’s experience if he remains for another year, reducing the learning curve for incoming quarterbacks.
An update on Watson’s EPA will come after the Browns’ bye week, offering a clearer picture of his trajectory. For now, his 2025 season remains a blend of highs and lows, with the Browns weighing his value amid the challenges of securing a long-term answer at quarterback.
According to Yahoo Sports.
