Northwestern will host Penn State in a Big Ten matchup featuring two teams with one loss each, kicking off at 8 p.m. ET on Friday at Ryan Field. Penn State enters as a -2.5 favorite, with early betting lines setting the over/under for total points at 45.5, slightly down from the initial 48.5.
Penn State holds a strong recent record against Northwestern, winning 16 of their last 22 encounters, though the Wildcats claimed a 22-21 victory in their most recent meeting in 2025. The Nittany Lions come off their first loss of the season after a 24-20 upset at home by Wisconsin. Despite leading 17-0 in the second quarter, Penn State was outscored 24-3 in the remainder of the game. Prior to that, they had opened their season with dominant wins over Marshall (45-0), Temple (27-9), and Buffalo (55-13).
Northwestern also suffered its first defeat recently, narrowly losing 29-23 to defending national champion Indiana on the road despite closing as 20.5-point underdogs. The Wildcats had won their first two games convincingly, beating San Diego State 34-18 and Colorado 41-7. Northwestern’s offense has been boosted by former Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles at quarterback, who has thrown for 807 yards and six touchdowns on 53 completions from 75 attempts, while adding 20 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 30 carries.
Penn State’s quarterback, Rocco Becht, a transfer from Iowa State, has thrown for 865 yards and nine touchdowns with only one interception on 57 completions from 93 attempts. Becht has also contributed 22 rushing yards and one touchdown on 20 carries. Despite the team’s strong start, Penn State is currently 2-2 against the spread this season, including failing to cover in their loss to Wisconsin and a win over Temple.
Northwestern, meanwhile, has covered the spread in all three games this season, including the 20.5-point spread in their close loss to Indiana. The Wildcats finished 7-4-2 against the spread last season and have looked competitive in their Big Ten matchups so far.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, favors Penn State to win 61 percent of the time with a predicted score of 29-23. The model also projects a 65.4 percent chance of the game’s total points exceeding the 45.5 over/under line, higher than the market’s implied probability.
Friday’s game could be decisive for both teams’ conference standing, as each looks to recover from recent setbacks. Penn State aims to avoid a second consecutive loss, while Northwestern seeks to build on its early season momentum and capitalize on home advantage at Ryan Field. The latest odds and projections suggest a close contest with scoring likely to push past the 45-point mark.
According to CBS.