The Philadelphia Phillies forced a deciding Game 3 against the Atlanta Braves in their MLB Wild Card Series with a 4-3 win in 10 innings on Wednesday. The winner will advance to the National League Division Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Phillies, who finished second in the NL East with an 88-74 record, have a strong road record of 46-37 this season, including the playoffs. The Braves, division winners at 94-68, boast an impressive 53-30 home record. Game 3 is set for Thursday at Truist Park in Atlanta, with first pitch scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia plans to start right-hander Aaron Nola, who ended the regular season with a 7-12 record and a 4.67 ERA. Atlanta is expected to counter with right-hander Grant Holmes, who posted a 10-6 record and a 3.44 ERA during the regular season. There is a possibility Holmes could follow an opener, although that remains unconfirmed.
The Phillies have a 3-0 advantage over the Braves in previous postseason series between the two teams. Betting odds currently list Philadelphia as a -110 favorite on the money line, while the over/under is set at 7.5 runs.
SportsLine’s Projection Model, known for accurate MLB betting picks, has simulated the matchup 10,000 times. The model projects the game will go over 7.5 combined runs, a prediction supported by recent trends as the over has hit in three of the Phillies’ last four games and five of the Braves’ last eight. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have also surpassed the total.
The model expects strong performances from several hitters. For Philadelphia, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner are each projected to record 1.5 or more total bases. For Atlanta, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Harris are forecasted to combine for at least 1.4 total bases apiece. Overall, the model estimates a combined total of 8.5 runs, with the over hitting 58% of the time in simulations.
After simulating every pitch, the model identifies one side of the money line as holding all the value, though the specific pick is not disclosed in the available information.
Philadelphia’s victory in Game 2 came after a tense extra-inning battle, with the Phillies edging the Braves 4-3 in 10 innings to extend the series. Now, both teams meet at Truist Park with the season on the line.
This decisive Game 3 will determine who faces the Dodgers in the next round. The Phillies aim to continue their postseason success against the Braves, while Atlanta looks to capitalize on home advantage to close out the series.
According to CBS.