The Texans are a field goal underdog on the road against Josh Allen, and SportsLine's Eric Cohen is calling for the upset. He has Houston winning 23-20 in Buffalo, a score that lands squarely in the middle of a historical pattern he's identified between these two AFC contenders.
Cohen, who finished last season with a 188-96-1 straight-up record (66%) on his NFL picks, is using more than just history to back the Texans. He points to Allen's road form as a decisive factor. Over three away starts, Allen has 10 turnovers compared to just five passing touchdowns. None of those previous defenses were as equipped to punish him as this Houston unit, which sacked Allen eight times and intercepted him twice when these teams met last year.
"Houston has won four of the last five meetings against Josh Allen and Buffalo, each by a single possession," Cohen said. "Expect the same in Week 1 between two of the AFC's top contenders. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL and should stifle Allen, while on offense, Houston QB C.J. Stroud needs to make amends for a dreadful finish to last season."
The score prediction is built on a specific scoring trend. Dating back to 2020, each of Houston's three victories over Buffalo has seen them score 22 or 23 points, while Buffalo has scored 19 or 20 in each of those games. Cohen's forecast of 23-20 mirrors that pattern exactly.
"Dating back to 2020, each of Houston's three victories over Buffalo has seen them score 22 or 23 points, while Buffalo has scored 19 or 20 in each of those games," he added. "History has a funny way of repeating itself. Texans 23, Bills 20."
The Bills-Texans matchup is one of seven games on the Week 1 slate with a line of three points or less, making it a tight opening weekend across the league. At the other end of the spectrum, the Chargers are the largest favorites of the week at -9.5 against the Cardinals, who enter the season on a nine-game losing streak.
Cohen has evaluated all 14 remaining games on the schedule, which runs through Sunday and concludes with Chiefs vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football. His full set of exact score predictions is available at SportsLine, where he also identifies a road team he expects to win by double-digits, a result he says is key for profitable Week 1 picks.
The Texans' case rests on a defense that has already proven it can handle Allen, and an offense that should benefit from a clean slate. Stroud's late-season collapse was well documented, but the Bills' defense is not the unit that will test him the way the Texans' front seven will test Buffalo's line. The line has moved slightly in favor of the Bills, but Cohen is holding firm on the upset.
The rest of his slate includes calls on the over/under in the highest-scoring matchups and a survivor pick for the week. With seven games decided by a field goal or less, the margin for error is thin across the board. Cohen's straight-up record last season suggests he has a method for navigating those close calls, and his Texans pick is the one he's leading with.
According to CBS.