Teams with exactly 3-4 running backs through Round 8 outscored those with more or fewer RBs by a significant margin last season, according to data from paid-only leagues on Underdog.
The optimal time to draft running backs has been between Rounds 2-7, with teams that started their drafts with RB-heavy builds outperforming those that didn't. Hayden Winks, the expert who analyzed the data, suggests that having exactly 3-4 RBs through Round 8 is the key to success. This strategy allows teams to take advantage of early-round RBs, such as Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jadarian Price, before the value drops off in Round 7.
Meanwhile, teams with fewer than 3 RBs through Round 8 have struggled to keep up with the competition. Winks notes that there's a "projection fall-off" in Round 7, where the quality of RBs drops significantly. This means that teams need to be strategic in their RB drafting to avoid missing out on top talent.
The data also suggests that teams with 3-4 RBs through Round 8 are more likely to win in fantasy football. Winks recommends drafting RB3 by Round 8, with the option to add a RB4 in Round 10 or later. This approach allows teams to balance their RB corps and focus on other positions, such as wide receivers.
In terms of wide receivers, the data indicates that teams with exactly 2-3 WRs through Round 5 outscored those with fewer or more WRs by a significant margin. Winks notes that this trend could be even more pronounced in 2026, given the expected increase in tight end usage by NFL teams.
Teams that draft WRs early, such as Terry McLaurin, are more valuable than ever, as they're likely to see a higher target share due to the reduced number of WRs on the field. Winks recommends being picky with WRs, as the depth in the middle rounds is expected to be lower.
When it comes to tight ends, the data suggests that teams that draft elite TEs, such as Brock Bowers and Colston Loveland, are more likely to win. However, Winks notes that teams need to be picky with elite TEs, as the data is noisy due to small samples. He recommends drafting Bowers or Loveland in Rounds 2-4, but waiting until Round 10+ to get TE2s.
Finally, the data indicates that teams that avoid drafting QB2 before Round 9 have a similar chance of winning as those that draft elite QBs early. Winks notes that waiting on QB becomes more valuable, as teams can focus on other positions and avoid taking on unnecessary risk.
The 2026 fantasy football season is just around the corner, and teams that adopt these strategies are likely to have an edge over their competition. As Winks notes, "the data is clear: teams that start their drafts with RB-heavy builds, focus on early-round WRs, and draft elite TEs strategically are more likely to win."
Source: Yahoo Sports